Iceland Volcano: Increased Likelihood Of An Eruption -- Iceland Met Office

Lava from the eruption 8. February 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/The Icelandic Institute of Natural History.

Magma volume beneath Svartsengi continues to increase

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Iceland Met Office

Updated 4. March at 16:00 UTC

Likely scenarios over the next few days:

• The volume of magma beneath Svartsengi continues to increase, which could result in a magma propagation and even a volcanic eruption.
• A volcanic eruption could start with a very short warning time, even less than 30 minutes.
• It is most likely that an eruption will occur in the area between Mt. Stóra- Skógfell and mt. Hagafell.

Model calculations suggest that the volume of magma which propagated from Svartsengi to the Sundhnúkur crater row was around 1.3 million cubic metres.

It had previously been calculated that about 0.5 million cubic metres of magma accumulates beneath Svartsengi each day. Considering this, the total amount of magma beneath Svartsengi will be around 9 million cubic metres by the end of tomorrow, Tuesday 5 March.

In previous events, magma has propagated once the total volume of magma accumulated beneath Svartsengi reaches between 8-13 million cubic metres. Therefore, there is an increased likelihood of new magma propagation and volcanic eruption once these conditions are met.

However, it should be noted also, that after repeated eruptions in Mt. Fagradalsfjall, there were examples of magma reaching slowly to the surface without much seismic activity. This sort of development should also be expected on the Sundhnúkur crater row.

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